Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.