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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.